|SURVEY

|FAVORS

‘sent to 600 candidates

. Here are some tips for do- ityourself anaiysts who want

‘ ta: follow the resulta of the Stat federal election as they

roll in Tuesday night.

>How the election chooses the : SO enment

The: general election is

-Yeally 282. separate. mini-:

elections,- with anywhere from three to 10 candidates competing in each con-

-- SHtuency for a seat in the * House of Commons. All but - 69 of the total 1,424 can-

didates are affiliated with a political party, whose name

RESULT NDP

_ OTTAWA (CP) — New Democrats are the only major federal party with near unanimous agreement on the impact of foreign investment on the national economy, results of a survey released Thursday by the Committee for an In- dependent Canada show, Dennis Conly, the ‘group’s executive director, said the results of the 10-question survey

‘when Parliament was dissolved show ‘“‘that with the exception of the NDP, comprehensive strategies for repatriating the economy have not been forthcoming from the major parties,”

He sald the committee is maintalning a non- partisan approach to the May 22 election but ‘can’t help but recognize that the NDP is the only party making noises about foreign ownership."

The organization seeks Canadian control of the economy and is now headed by retired NDP MP Max Saltsman,

mittee received 133 completed questionnaires of the 400 sent. out, the majority from NDP candidates. He refused to say how. many re: Bpondents were sitting MPs

The results show only of 73 NDP respondents do not be- lieve the country’s current economic problems can be attrib- uted to’ an historical reliance upon foreign investment.

Nine Liberal can-

didates accepted that theory and 21 did not. The Progressive Con- sSeryatives were more evenly divided with 14 agreeing and 12 disagreeing. _ On the need for, more foreign investment to Strengthen the economy, 10 Liberals, nine Tories and two New Democrats agreed, while the Majority disagreed.

Only a few Liberals and Conservatives said the standard of living would be adversely affected if more restrictions were placed on foreign in- veatment, All but two New Democrats dis-

agreed. The NDP was more evenly split on the

question of whether Ot- tawa should offer tax in- centives only to Canadianowned or ~ ‘controlled enterprises with 30 agreeing and 36 disa . Con- servative candidates

favored the move 20 to eight and Liberals 16 to 13.

« ‘lL partes were nearly Unanin.aus in agreeing that Canadian banks should increase their loans to Canadian en- trepreneurs, Only six Liberals, two Tories ant two New Democrats disagreed,

Thirteen Liberal, 22 Conservative and 62 NDP candidates beliaved Canadian businesses should be taxed at lower rates than forelgn- controlled companies, A large majority thought the federal govenment should take action to increase Canadian control of the economy.

The candidates generally agreed Canadians are willing to make personal sacrifices to decrease foreign ownership, Most would fake less foreign own- ership a national priority.

Conly said the com- [-

pears “wader the can- ae date's on the ballot paper.

The party whose can- didates win most seats gets to be the government — its

‘leader the prime minister — if it takes 143 seats or more.

if no party wins such a clear majority, the leader who canform a coalition or a looser or. shifting alllance with enough other members of Parliament may govern, as long aa he retains majority support on major programs and issues in the Commons.

Eight out of the 30 previous general elections failed to produce a clear majority for any single party. In fact, only three of the last eight elections resulted’ in majority governments, in 1958, 1968 and 1974.

The most recent minority government was the 1972-74 Liberal administration which lasted 18 months before opposition parties ‘eombined in the Commons to vote it out of office. .

The party leaders vying to head the next government as

. prime minister also have to

win a Commons seat, Liberal Pierre- Trudeau is running against six rivals in Mon- treal-Mount Royal, Progressive Conservative Joe Clark against four in Yellowhead, Alta, and the -New Democratic Party’s Ed

Broadbent against five in

Oshawa, Ont.

Social Credit Leader Fabien Roy, Beauce, Que., against five rivals, has only 103 can- didates in the field across the

try, 74 of them in Que-

How the results are reported Gn election night, the voting ends at 8p.m, local times. The counting and reporting of ballot ‘totals begins minutes later at each of more than 68,000 indi- vidual polling stations.

The number of stations re- porting results-in each con- atituency ranges from the 70 in the Eastern Arctic riding of Nunatsiagq to the 400 In the

‘ Tofonto-area constituency of YorkScarborough,

Because the polling Stations are strung out over seven time zones from Newfoundland to the Yukon territory, the reporting of results poll by poli in each constituency follows the

setting sun westward over a _

period of 5% hours,

And because election law forbids the publication of any results in a region until the voting ends there, Atlantic Canada sees the verdict

Signs to follow

By THE CANADIAN PRESS

Election-watchers should look for teli-tale signs of a developing. trend Tuesday night as poll results roll in.

Although results in one region don’t necessarily mean voters are In the same

- mood elsewhere, a string of

gains for one Atlantic Canada, for example, or the toppling of prominent, veterans, could haan a country-wide

party in

ae ‘while Quebec is a province unlike the others in met elections, Social Credit

tories in many more than a t seats there could mean that Plerre Trudeau's Liberals are in trouble nationally,

But if New Democratic Party candidates knock off a few Atlantic seats and gain ground strongly In Ontario, this could foreshadow a replay of the 1972 election when no party won a clear

majority —at least 143 of the .

282 seats this time.

Among contests _the analysts will be watching closely:

In Newfoundland, New Democrat Bryan Blackniore is gunning for Liberal William Rompkey in Grand Falls-White . BayLabrador, aiming to snap an unbroken string of Liberal victories there and broaden the NDP beachhead in Newfoundland beyond jast fall's byelection win by Fonse Faour, seeking re-election in HumberPort au Port-St. Barbe,

Hf Deputy Prime Minlater Allan MacEachen slides in Cape Breton Highlanda- Canso, as he did nly once in the last nine elections — crushed by the 1988 Con- servative sweep — then the Liberals in Nova Scotia and elsewhere are in deep trouble.

‘unfold gradually over-six or seven hours while electors on the Pacific Coast find out how three-quarters of the country has voted only

_ moments after their own

polis close, Winners win quickly, unless it's a tight race

Generally, especially in

‘ compact urban ridings,

winners and losers in each constituency are known within an hour of the polls closing — unless it is a close race down the last few ballots. ’

As votes are reported from. individual polling stations through each constituency’s main returning office, the result may become clear long before the last stations are heard from.

Thus, if one candidate is leading and gaining int three progressive poll reports o! significant size, the rule of thumb says he or she is a winner. For example, Candidate A is a sure thing if

’ he or she is out in front on

resulta from 20 of 258 palls in the riding, stretches the lead after 45 polls are in, and widens the lead further after

80 polls.

The gaining rule, however, has to be balanced against other factors such as historical voting patterns in the riding, any regional trends for or against his party, and whether slow- reporting rural polls in a mixed urban-rural con- stituency might swing against the early leader. - Comparisons with 1074 are diffi-cult

One snag in trying to read trends this time is that com- parisons with riding results

in the last federal election.

are awkward,

This is not only because there are more eligible voters — 14.9 million com- pared to 13.5 million in 1974 -— but algo because the makeup of the constituencies is different. There now are 282 ridings, up from 264, and only 16 of them have the same boundaries as five years ago.

The chief electoral office has calculated what the 1974 winning margins would have been in each riding if the boundaries had been what they are now. But this ex- cludes the possibility that

differently with a different Iineup of candidates, Nationally, the realign- ment .of ridings has. given more weight to the vote in Western Canada, compared to Quebec and the Atlantic

region. Of the 18 additional -

seats, nine are in the four western provinces — ‘one each in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, two in’ Alberta, five in British Columbia — and one in the Northwest Territories. Quebec has one more, On- tario seven.

The 75 seats in Quebec, a traditional Liberal stronghold where that party won 60 seats last ‘time against three for the Con- servatives, now are bal- anced by 77 seats in the four Western provinces, where Conservative . strength overpowered the Liberals 49 seats to 13 in 1974,

Ontario and British Columbia are key hat- tlegrounds

Political election strategists consider the election will be won or lost.in Ontario and British Columbia.

This is based on the belief

that the 32 seats in the four Atlanile provinces will split up more or less evenly, the Liberals will roll up moat of the 75 Quebec seate and the Conservatives again will capture most of the 48 Prairie seats.

These assumptions may be ©

upset,-especially if the NDP picks off seats in Atlantic Canada and makes gains in

‘Saskatchewan and

Manitoba, Or if Social Credit whiltles down Liberal strength in Quebec by taking more than an expected eight to 10 seats there.- _

The three-way fight among Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats for the 95 Ontario seats — one-third of the national total — thus becomes crucial, Last time, the 68 Ontario seats split:55 Liberal; 25 Conservative and eight NDP.

The Ontario outcome should be indicated, unless it's squeaky tight, by soon after 9p.m. EDT — after 10p.m. in the Maritimes and two hours before the B.C. polls close,

Buf if the result should be as close as early opinion polls suggested and the

contesting .

electors might” have voted

The Herald, Tuesday, Muy

—Here’s a guide to the election

"By THE CANADIAN PRESS

Ontario battle is a saw-olf, British Columbians may settle which party governs when choosing their 28 MPs, 10 per cent of the total.

In 1972, Liberals and Con- servatives were almost neckand-neck going into British Columbia, but that province declined to settle the issue when it chose 11

4 Le ee

24, 107%, Page 13

New Democrats, Conservatives and four Liberals.

It was days before recounts in other ridings gave Trudeau's Liberals a minority win by 109 seats to 107 for the Conservatives, the NDP wielding its best- ever show with 31 seals, Social Credit holding 15.

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