VICTORIA — No matter © where you live in this great | province of ours, you are likely to be affected by the outcome of the Cariboo by-election on Sept. 20. I'll tell you why. That vote to select an MLA to replace long-serving Social Credit cabinet minister Alex Fraser, who died in May,

should be an automatic win for

the governing Socreds, given. the history of the Cariboo and its right-leaning, free-enterprise voting preference. It should be, but... ; _

Fraser, nearly 20 years an

MLA before his death, won in the 1986 general election by more than 5,500 votes over the nearest New Democrat, to con- tinue to hold a seat which ‘has been Social Credit seemingly forever. a ~ . But, we live in interesting - times, politically, what with the at-times-scandalous events and

the flamboyant style of: Premier .

Bill Vander -Zalm during the . past three years of his rule. We've seen loyal, long-serving Socreds tear up their member- ship cards; there was a - 9;000-vote swing from the

governing party to the NDP-in-

the Boundary-Similkameen by- election, another Socred strong- hold; and party members have stayed away in droves from other by-election tests, leaving | Vander Zalm and the Socreds with a 0-4 record to date. ‘When the Premier fired the

starting gun last Wednesday : for 2 the Cariboo poll, he knew that ” he was placing his credibility --’

and his future on the line. The _ fact that Cariboo is even con- -

’ sidered to be a close fight is.

amazing — it should be the | Socreds’ in a walk, what with the economy booming, the . traditional voting patterns, and the 20 years of Alex Fraser all designed to: contribute to suc- . cess. . oy But one of Vander Zalm’s

biggest political mistakes was to discard and to disregard the dying Fraser in the last year of his life. Dumping him from the

' cabinet in 1986 is one thing, _ perhaps even understandable

given the fierce loyalty of the King of the Cariboo to former premier Bill Bennett, not one of BVZ’s favorite people. However, for Vander Zalm to write off Fraser and his in- fluence, to the point of placing the MLA’s seat in the back

“reaches of the legislative assem- . ‘bly this March — when it was.

known the cancer which was

eating away at the feisty Fraser

would kill him within weeks —— appeared to many to be unfeel- ing, uncaring, and unwise. Sure, the outspoken MLA kept taking shots at some of the premier’s policies, but his ser- vice to the province and to his riding deserved a better reward. The whole thing might back- . fire on Sept. 20, with some Cariboo political observers

,

Danny

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-alreaidy predicting a'substantial ' protest ‘through inaction. In

other. words, Fraser-supportive

- Socreds who cannot bring

themselves to vote either for the NDP or for Vander Zalm —

. will simply stay at home.

There was a 69 percent turn-

‘out in the ‘86 general election;

anything less than 55 percent.

for the by-election will be their

way of leaving a legacy for

- Alex Fraser, regardless of the." ~ outcome. Se

And that’s where you come -

in, dear reader. If Vander Zalm

wins in Cariboo — and God

knows they are pouring enough

of the taxpayers’ money into the region'to try to buy the. votes they need — he and his followers: will take that as a sign that things have turned around. They will milk it as a

~ supreme victory and that The

Zalm is back... and will seek to

- sustain the momentum at their

October convention and into a spring general‘election, where’: they then will be after your: °- vote, | ce i

- On the other hand, ifthe Socreds'lose, the irony will be:

that.a seat which should never have been in doubt could well be the final straw to break Social Credit’s back... or at least the Premier’s. He likely would not survive the after- math, either by stepping aside or being moved aside by his caucus, or by becoming the west coast version of Richard | Hatfield, the pitiful former New Brunswick premier who sank without a trace, losing. every single seat in his last elec- tion campaign. You'll have a hand in that scenario, too,

One pundit has even sug-

gested that the NDP might “g0.

easy”, that they might not want to win in the Cariboo, because the New Democrats feel they can win the big one as

Jong as it is Vander Zalm they are fighting. A victory for their:

candidate would hurry the de- ‘parture of Wild Bill, and they don’t want that, goes the

reasoning. .

Don’t believe it. The NDP’.

would gain a damn sight more -

with a win in yet another tradi-.

tional Socred stronghold, than

_ ‘they would in trying to keep

the enigmatic Vander Zalm

: _ propped up... and they know it

J’ll be in the Cariboo before .

the vote to give you further in- .

‘sight. Stay tuned.

Parting Thought: A 60-year- old, Grade-10-educated auc- tioneer versus a 42-year-old ~ rancher, and chairman of the school board, with a Masters. -

continued on page 5 —

|. 'Reniewal'of the second pliase for the Forest“?

The view from “oo: | sary, quite simply because at this point we have for Fe Victoria.—" |

— bydomn Pier

~ Tan admirable and refreshing manner, represen- _

_tatives of the B.C. Forest Service said without the... "least aura of vagueness on last week’s tour of local. | "rehabilitation sites that the data base for creating new, ‘commercially viable forests is far from an-exact — ae

- gcience and in fact barely beyond its infancy. The ye

ploitation of forests has for decades outrun our’) knowledge of how they grow back and consequently: | how to replace them. eS The agricultural model of growing trees is currently in vogue. The parallels between growing.an annual oe crop of wheat or barley and growing a century-long rotation of spruce or hemlock are, however, ques- tionable. OO ns “During the recent drought in.the Canadian prairies, we have all read of farmers in that region saying _ stoically, ‘“Well, there’s always next year.”’ Whether. we believe it or not; that’s what farmers are supposed~ to say. _ _ . . It’s rather more difficult to imagine foresters in 2050 saying, “Well, there’s always next century.”” | There’s a lot riding on the success of this one-shot. crop. FRDA II is necessary, not necessarily to produce

. another crop of commercially-valuable trees, but

because the next two generations of foresters are going to need an understanding of how trees grow and under what circumstances, in order to meet the particular _ needs of their own future world...

There are a lot of arguments from both forest ecologists and iridustrial tree cutters for. and against -

clear cutting. One of the optimistic industry theories is:

that on a given site, if the trees of one species are planted at the same time, they'll all be the same size at maturity, making things convenient for both logging equipment and sawmilling machinery. It’s a factory

' concept worthy of a cross between Henry Ford and George. Washington ‘Carver. . |

There are demonstrated problems with monocul- tures, however — the proven axiom is that nature abhors a vacuum, whether it’s.single occupant is

' wheat stalks or spruce trees. In an old growth forest,.

enormous trees dominate our vision. That forest on closer examination, however, reveals plant and animal

life in every stage of growth and maturity. If, for ex- — |

ample, the spruce leader weevils mentioned in our — story on FRDA projects lived in.an old growth forest, . travelling from one green spruce leader to another — would involve considerable distances and a lot of hazards, including predatory spiders and birds. By. contrast, in a stand of young spruce of the same age all planted a short distance apart, the nasty little in-- sects would meet almost no resistance in infesting the .. entire stand. — Wee In the conversion to monocultures in North Ameri- can farming, it has been conclusively demonstrated ——

‘that despite an enormous increase in the use of - pesiticides the incidence: of pest-destroyed crops has in- - creased far more..On a one-year crop that’s indicative |

of how far the agricultural community is willing to

‘bend the environment in order to hold the line against

nature’s resistance to a vacuum. Closer to home, the — question becomes: how much further than that will the people of 2050 be willing to go to preserve this once- in-a-century crop of commercial forests?. | None of this is in any way an argument against the

renewal of FRDA. In fact, it is an argument for it. -

Aside from the commerce of 2050, which may place a jot more value on standing trees than horizontal ones, another FRDA will without question build a library of knowledge which the researchers of the future, like the scientists of today witnessing the pictures from |

Voyager 2:being-sent back from the outer limits of the

solar system, will thank us for and smile with admira- tion at our foresight. So, a i